Offensive line health. If the right guard is limping and their interior is winning, the generic model is too optimistic.
Opening drive, scoreless game, fourth-and-two at the opponent's 49. Your offense is above average, your defense is excellent, and the opposing quarterback is dangerous. The basic model says go. I would keep the offense out because possession against a dangerous quarterback has extra value, while the field-position gain from a touchback is modest. What contextual information could change your call?
