#0 · Original post · Fri, 04 September 2026 15:13
Fourth-and-two at midfield: are you going?
Opening drive, scoreless game, fourth-and-two at the opponent's 49. Your offense is above average, your defense is excellent, and the opposing quarterback is dangerous. The basic model says go. I would keep the offense out because possession against a dangerous quarterback has extra value, while the field-position gain from a touchback is modest. What contextual information could change your call?