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Six selections at odds of 1.50 each might look like a fairly sensible accumulator. None of the individual prices seems particularly risky, and it's easy to convince yourself that most of them should land.
Then you look at the combined odds.
Those six selections produce decimal odds of approximately 11.39, which implies a probability of just 8.8% before accounting for bookmaker margin.
That's quite a difference from the impression you get when looking at each selection separately.
The problem is that every additional leg gives the accumulator another opportunity to fail. You could get five selections right and still lose the entire bet because of one unexpected result. That's a frustrating way to spend a weekend!
Of course, this calculation assumes the selections are independent. If results are related, the combined probability needs a different calculation. But the basic point remains. Short individual prices don't automatically make a long accumulator a sensible bet.
I'd rather question the weakest selection than keep adding favorites simply because they look safe on paper.
When you build an accumulator, do you calculate the combined probability first, or are you sometimes tempted to add another favorite because the individual odds look attractive?
Then you look at the combined odds.
Those six selections produce decimal odds of approximately 11.39, which implies a probability of just 8.8% before accounting for bookmaker margin.
That's quite a difference from the impression you get when looking at each selection separately.
The problem is that every additional leg gives the accumulator another opportunity to fail. You could get five selections right and still lose the entire bet because of one unexpected result. That's a frustrating way to spend a weekend!
Of course, this calculation assumes the selections are independent. If results are related, the combined probability needs a different calculation. But the basic point remains. Short individual prices don't automatically make a long accumulator a sensible bet.
I'd rather question the weakest selection than keep adding favorites simply because they look safe on paper.
When you build an accumulator, do you calculate the combined probability first, or are you sometimes tempted to add another favorite because the individual odds look attractive?
